福建中立恒自动化设备有限公司
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赛迪研究院总工程师秦:工业经济有望继续巩固复苏势头
发布时间:2024-12-18

 推送:0010-09257省市县区域/直送2024全+境+派+送

今年以来,我国工业经济运行总体保持恢复向好态势,但也面临需求不足、效益下滑等困难和挑战。中国电子信息产业发展研究院总工程师秦海林在接受《经济参考报》记者专访时表示,当前需要充分认识到“稳实体就是稳大盘、稳工业就是稳经济”,下一步随着经济社会全面恢复常态化运行以及新一轮稳增长政策举措逐步落地,我国经济内生动力逐步增强,工业经济有望继续巩固复苏势头,推动实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。


  国家统计局数据显示,上半年规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.8%,增速逐月回升;在41个工业大类行业中,26个行业实现增长,增长面达63.4%。但与此同时,部分行业仍呈现下行压力,工业企业利润总体恢复缓慢。


  对此,秦海林认为,从外部看,国外通胀高企、地缘政治冲突加剧、金融市场持续动荡、贸易壁垒增多,外部环境复杂严峻持续影响全球经济增长动力。从内部看,国内需求不足,一些企业经营困难、制造业重点领域存在一定的风险隐患,一定程度上影响了制造业整体更高水平复苏。


  “在当前内外部环境中,要充分认识到‘稳实体就是稳大盘、稳工业就是稳经济’,提振制造业发展信心、提升制造业企业利润。”秦海林表示,要加快传统产业改造升级,着力提升高端化、智能化、绿色化水平;着力培育壮大新兴产业,提升产业科技创新能力,前瞻布局一批未来产业;采取更大力度促进中小企业专精特新发展,巩固提升基本盘;完善产业政策体系,促进产业政策与财税、金融、贸易、投资、人才等政策高效协同布局。


  值得一提的是,当前我国制造业高质量发展步伐明显加快。上半年,新能源汽车产量增长42.4%,目前我国新能源汽车累计产量突破2000万辆;太阳能电池、工业控制计算机及系统产量分别增长54.5%、34.1%。5G应用加速向工业、医疗、教育、交通等重点领域拓展深化,应用案例数累计超5万个。


  秦海林认为,我国制造业规模大、体系全,拥有潜力最大的内需市场,在高铁、船舶、电力装备、工程机械、通信设备等领域已经形成特色优势,个人计算机、手机、家用电器、太阳能电池板等一批重要产品产量占全球一半以上,但仍存在关键核心技术受制于人、高端技术产品供给不足、产业基础薄弱、要素成本上升、高技术人才缺乏、经济循环不畅等短板问题。


  秦海林认为,下一步我国制造业发展锻长板、补短板、强基础,应从四个方面协同发力。一是强化关键技术攻关,进一步增强发展韧性,加快原创性引领性科技攻关,加快构建自主可控、安全稳定的产业链供应链体系。二是加快推动传统优势产业高端化、智能化、绿色化转型升级,提升在全球分工中的话语权和竞争力。三是前瞻布局一批未来产业领域,创造新的竞争优势,全面提升产业体系现代化水平。四是推动产业融合化发展,加快创新链、产业链、资金链、人才链深度融合,推动一二三产业以及上中下游、大中小企业高质量协同发展,加速形成优势互补、高质量发展的区域经济布局。


  近段时间,以大模型为代表的通用人工智能不断取得技术突破,实现了人工智能从感知向认知、从量变到质变的跨越。秦海林表示,制造业应从深度、广度两个方面更好的利用数字技术,实现技术创新与模式创新。从深度来看,通用人工智能将更加深入地赋能制造业,以大模型技术牵引5G、遥感、云计算、物联网、大数据、人工智能、模型算法等新一代信息技术实现对制造业各个环节的深度赋能;从广度来看,通用人工智能技术将更为广泛应用在产业链、创新链、资金链等制造业的多个环节,打通信息堵点卡点,推动制造业实现更高质量发展。

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